Modeling Large-Scale Industrial Demand Response: Insights For Europe’s Energy Transition

European decarbonization policies are accelerating the shift from fossil-based generation to Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES). While essential for climate goals, this transition challenges system reliability due to renewable variability. Demand Response (DR), and particularly Direct Load Control (DLC), offers a promising solution to enhance flexibility by shifting electricity demand. This study assesses industrial DLC at the European level within long-term investment planning. A database of industrial load profiles and demand projections is developed for 28 countries over 2025–2060 and integrated into the open-source EMPIRE model, a multi-period stochastic capacity expansion model for the European power sector, extended with a DLC module for load shifting. Results show savings between 0.44% and 1.47% compared to the No DLC case, with activated DLC accounting for 2–5% of the Maximum Reduction potential. The flexibility rate amplifies the benefits of longer shift windows, reducing Li-ion BESS utilization by up to 10.31% and increasing solar generation and installed capacity.