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Assessment of Generation Adequacy by Modeling a Joint Probability Distribution Model

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The socio-politically motivated energy transition leads to expansion of renewable energy power plants (REPP) and simultaneous shutdowns of conventional power plants. As the electric load always needs to be balanced by sufficient generation and the energy production by REPP cannot be steered adequate to the demand but depends on weather situations, new methods are needed to assess generation adequacy. These results could be used afterwards to define measures to ensure reliable energy supply.

To evaluate the generation adequacy a joint probability distribution model is proposed. It models the dependencies of weather characteristics, the electrical load and unavailabilities of conventional power plants using pair-copula constructions. The model is, then, applied to determine the probability of generation imbalance. The implementation is shown for Germany in the scenario year 2030.


Marie-Louise Kloubert    


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