Certification of MPC-based zonal controler security properties using accuracy-aware machine learning proxies

The fast growth of renewable energies increases the power congestion risk. To address this issue, the French Transmission System Operator (RTE) has developed closed-loop controllers to handle congestion. RTE wishes to estimate the probability that the controllers ensure the equipment's safety to guarantee their proper functioning. The naive approach to estimating this probability relies on simulating many randomly drawn scenarios and then using all the outcomes to build a confidence interval around the probability. Although theory ensures convergence, the computational cost of power system simulations makes such a process intractable. The present paper aims to propose a faster process using machine-learning-based proxies. The amount of required simulations is significantly reduced thanks to an accuracy-aware proxy built with Multivariate Gaussian Processes. However, using a proxy instead of the simulator adds uncertainty to the outcomes. An adaptation of the Central Limit Theorem is thus proposed to include the uncertainty of the outcomes predicted with the proxy into the confidence interval. As a case study, we designed a simple simulator that was tested on a small network. Results show that the proxy learns to approximate the simulator's answer accurately, allowing a significant time gain for the machine-learning-based process.