Modeling the Impact of End-User Flexibility and Bill Structure on Future Transmission Grid Loading

Demand-side flexibility is expected to play a key role during the transition towards renewable-dominated power systems and the electrification of transportation and heating sectors. Following this, massive investments in transmission capacities will be required, which may be reduced if end-users appropriately exploit their flexibility from the edge of the network. However, modeling the end-user flexible behavior and its impact on transmission grid load during the planning stage is not straightforward. The rationale behind this is that it results from the aggregation of atomistic loads and that it may be unlocked implicitly, i.e., via the structure of electricity bill. In this paper, assuming economically rational end-users, we develop an equilibrium model of end-users minimizing their electricity bill, while taking into account the elasticity of electricity prices. The proposed approach is used to derive updated transmission load projections, highlighting the benefits of considering end-user flexibility for transmission system planning.